Great, sure. Every headline about this says “insider trading,” but I don’t think this is insider trading? Santos had no obligation of confidentiality to anyone to keep his State of the Union plans confidential; therefore he was free to trade on them. Or perhaps I am wrong; this is all a very new and stupid area of law. But I think I’m right.
That said, Kalshi seems to disagree; it bans insiders — probably including Santos — from trading on mention markets like this. Does violating Kalshi’s terms of service constitute criminal insider trading? Maybe! We might find out.
Also, while I think he was free to trade on his secret State of the Union plans, was he free to lie about them? I mean, to lie about them and trade on them? I do think that announcing that you’re going to the State of the Union to push up the “Yes” price, buying “No” contracts and then not showing up seems like a pretty textbook case of market manipulation.
Source: George Santos insider trading